Decision Tree Regression for Time Series

Created by Dr. Pedram Jahangiry | Enhanced with Claude

Understanding Decision Tree Regression for Forecasting

This visualization demonstrates how Decision Trees work for time series forecasting using the classic airline passenger dataset. The model uses lagged features (Lag_1 and Lag_2) to predict future passenger counts.

Key Concept: Decision Trees partition the feature space using recursive splits. Each split creates a boundary that divides the data into regions with similar target values. The final prediction in each region is the average of all training points in that region.

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Decision Tree Structure
Feature Space: Lag_1 vs Lag_2 with Decision Boundaries
Time Series: Actual vs Predicted Passengers

Why Decision Trees Struggle with Time Series Forecasting